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01 September 2013

Just when we thought that things were looking up and the end of a long recession might be in sight, the Middle East and a possible military conflict involving the US and its allies rears its ugly head. If we leave to one side the enormous human sufferring that is occurring in the Middle East over a number of countries as a debate for another place, this has the potential for severe disruption on a global scale not least because of the possible increase in crude oil prices and the damaging effects that will have if held for a prolonged period. One the other hand it is generally accepted that the US (still the leading global economic powerhouse) is well on its way out of the slump it has been in for the past few years, and is also well down the road to being energy self-sufficient. This combination might help to offset, at least in part, the economic problems that the Middle East might create. As far as the markets are concerned September is not usually very good in any case so look out for a bumpier than usual few weeks.

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