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01 February 2019UNCERTAINTY
Last month the major Indexes either declined a little more or held steady. Generally speaking the European Indexes are in Bear territory while the US indexes seem undecided. Indexes having generally fallen over the past 4 months and have become volatile which is not a good investing climate. There does not seem a clear global economic consensus going forward at the moment.
How do we pick shares in these markets? The answer is that we do not try. Instead we wait until the Indexes start telling us that they want to start moving upwards in a sustained manner, which in turn increases our probability of making successful investments. Strong sound companies, bought at a good price, in a rising market, equals probability on our side and not against us. It is difficult enough trying to find successful investments (just look at the abysmal performance of the funds that look after the money of most people) so we need to have a fair wind behind us to afford us the good prospects.
As has been said before, sometimes the most profitable strategy is staying in cash and doing nothing.