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01 December 2019VOLATILITY CONTINUES

Markets continue to be volatile and not a friendly investing environment. Two factors are at play here given that markets do not go up forever:

1. In historic terms the length of this current bull run would indicate at the very least a fairly severe correction.

2. Funds are moving to situations other than shares which means the power in the markets in each rise is not being backed by heavy cash flows.

Unless or until this situation changes we say stay in cash or similar - when bargains are difficult to find it must mean that the market is overvalued.

01 November 2019UNCERTAINTY (Again)

The UK is to have a General Election, the US/China Trade War continues to affect not only those countries but many others in the backwash, and world economic data gets ever more gloomy. Add to that the fact that Banks around the world are apparently indulging again in the same practices that caused the 2008 financial crash (they have just changed the product names) and it all adds up to a miserable short/medium term outlook.

For us, as we are mostly in cash and having set ourselves up to spot quality bargain situations if and when they occur, we just have to be patient as opportunities will (and are) arising in different areas of the world. It is just a matter of keeping a close eye on what is happening in your preferred investment sector.

01 October 2019GETTING READY (Part 2)

Back from the holidays and hopefully you all had a nice time. If you recall we are in cash (which in itself carries a certain amount of danger, remember the old saying about markets going up for much longer than you think) because we are expecting some sort of rupture in the markets that will provide us with buying opportunities. Commonly when in this situation you will be sorely tempted to spend some of your cash, but look at the global evidence. In the US the market seems to be stalling and has not really moved in the last few months. In Europe the so called Brexit is consuming all thought and many countries in that block are stagnating or falling backwards. Much the same can be said of Asia, and globally it seems that optimism as at somewhat of a premium. Under these conditions, unless you can find solid companies paying a reasonable dividend better to keep your money as global interest rates are not good. If you want further encouragement you will be in good company as this what the worlds greatest investor does.

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